In un contesto che fino a poco fa era caratterizzato da una crescente attesa per il verdetto delle elezioni presidenziali statunitensi, il petrolio continua a macinare gradualmente qualche gradino di risalita. Il merito è del sentimento pre-elettorale: la crescita delle “quotazioni” di Hillary Clinton nei sondaggi sta infatti rassicurando i mercati finanziari, abbassando la pressione di un avversione al rischio. Il biglietto verde ne ha beneficiato contro euro, sterlina e contro i principali termini di riferimento valutario, supportando così il prezzo del petrolio a riprendersi gradualmente. Ma quali saranno le previsioni sul greggio nel medio termine?

RICHIEDI IL TUO PRESTITO

Previsioni OPEC

Attualmente il Brent si trova intorno a quota 46,7 dollari il barile, mentre il Wti è intorno a quota 45,20 dollari al barile. I prezzi sono dunque in lieve ripresa rispetto agli scorsi giorni, ma pur sempre compressi verso il basso: a nuocere, nelle ultime ore, sono stati i dati, molto deboli, relativi alle importazioni di greggio da parte della Cina nel mese di ottobre. Il Paese asiatico, tra i principali consumatori di greggio da importazione, ha infatti diminuito l’import dell’oro nero dell’1,4 per cento anno su anno rispetto al -1,9 per cento di settembre, ma – soprattutto – rispetto al -1,1 per cento del consenso. A pesare in maniera maggiore è tuttavia anche il gruppo insistente di dubbi sull’impegno effettivo dei Paesi OPEC di rispettare l’accordo per tagliare la produzione e ridurre l’eccesso di offerta, in programma per la fine del mese di novembre e, nonostante i buoni auspici, ancora turbato da nubi evidenti. In tal proposito, proprio ieri il segretario generale dell’OPEC, Mohammed Barkindo, ha dichiarato alla stampa che i Paesi del Cartello sono impegnati a rispettare l’accordo siglato ad Algeri lo scorso settembre, e formalizzarlo il 30 novembre a Vienna, dove ha sede l’OPEC. Nonostante tali dichiarazioni, il mercato esprime molto scetticismo sulla possibilità che l’OPEC possa raggiungere un accordo credibile, tanto che le quotazioni oggi sono oltre 7 dollari sotto i massimi seguiti all’accordo di Algeri.

Per quanto concerne la view di settore da parte della stessa OPEC, l’Organizzazione dei Paesi esportatori di petrolio ha ipotizzato che i prezzi del greggio possano salire di almeno 5 dollari al barile nel medio periodo, raggiungendo dunque almeno quota 60 dollari al barile in termini nominali entro il 2020. Si tratterebbe di un valore non certo brillante, bensì inferiore di circa 20 dollari al barile rispetto alla cifra di base di 80 dollari al barile che è stata utilizzata nel 2015 con orizzonte temporale nell’inizio del decennio successivo. Per quest’anno, invece, l’OPEC ha stimato prezzi medi a circa 40 dollari al barile.

L’OPEC si è poi spinta ad interpretare quella che potrebbe essere la domanda globale di petrolio. Nel 2016 la stessa è vista in crescita di circa 1 milione di barili al giorno rispetto a quanto previsto lo scorso anno, per arrivare a una produzione di 99,2 milioni di barili al giorno nel 2021.

La view degli analisti

Fin qui, le osservazioni evolutive dell’OPEC. Discorso diverso per quanto concerne gli analisti, che si dimostrano un po’ scettici sul tiepido ottimismo dell’Organizzazione. In particolare, riportava il quotidiano Milano Finanza, gli osservatori di Kepler Cheuvreux sostengono che i prezzi del petrolio non potranno andare oltre i 60 dollari al barile in maniera sostenibile. Ad ogni modo, proseguono gli stessi analisti, è possibile che “l’OPEC possa ancora fare la differenza. Se il Cartello non fa tagli, i mercati continueranno a essere in eccesso di offerta nel 2017 ed è improbabile che i prezzi del petrolio recuperino sopra quota 45 dollari al barile il prossimo anno”. Dunque, gli esperti della banca d’affari, sostenendo infine che l’accordo di Algeri (che, ricordiamo, prevede un tetto produttivo a 32,5-33 milioni di barili al giorno rispetto alla produzione attuale di 33,8 milioni di barili al giorno) abbia inviato un messaggio positivo, cioè che i Paesi OPEC sono finalmente pronti ad agire per poter arrivare a un miglior riequilibrio di mercato.

“Siamo fiduciosi che tale accordo verrà firmato, ma se l’Opec vuole rivedere prezzi del petrolio a 55-60 dollari al barile deve anche riconoscere che ha bisogno di mantenere la produzione sotto 34 milioni di barili al giorno fino al 2020” – aggiungono ancora gli analisti di Kepler Cheuvreux, sempre citati da Milano Finanza, per mantenere poi invariate le proprie stime sul prezzo del petrolio per il 2017 (Brent a 55 dollari al barile) e 2018 (60 dollari al barile), ma subordinando la realizzazione di tali previsioni a un impegno di tagli in seno all’OPEC.

In merito, conclude poi l’approfondimento di Milano Finanza, i risultati del terzo trimestre delle società del settore petrolifero hanno finora mostrato dei buoni progressi sulla riduzione dei costi, mentre il capex ha evidenziato ancora un trend in calo. “Il punto di neutralità della cassa del settore (vale a dire il livello del prezzo del petrolio necessario affinché il flusso di cassa copra gli investimenti e i dividendi organicamente, assumendo che tutti i dividendi siano pagati al 100% in contanti) sta comunque migliorando ed ora è a 62 dollari al barile per il 2017 e a 58 dollari al barile per il 2018” – aggiunge infine il quotidiano.

Insomma, il nostro scenario centrale non può che tenere ancora in debita considerazione il clima di aleatorietà in seno all’accordo di Vienna del prossimo 30 novembre. L’impressione che è che sarà molto difficile cercare di far rispettare le nuove quote di ripartizione della produzione ad alcuni Paesi che si sono avvicinati relativamente da poco sul settore (es. Iran), e che comunque il taglio disciplinato dall’OPEC potrebbe non essere sufficiente per poter dare una mano al riequilibrio del settore petrolifero. Pertanto, servirà probabilmente non solo uno sforzo congiunto da parte dei Paesi OPEC per poter disciplinare finalmente in modo concreto il taglio, quanto anche un’intesa più ampia, che possa riguardare anche alcuni dei Paesi non OPEC, che per il momento guardano con interesse, e con diversi atteggiamenti, quanto sta avvenendo tra Algeri e Vienna…

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